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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Heerenveen and Feyenoord share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 18, as Heerenveen and Feyenoord drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 1.55 xG and Feyenoord 1.87 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 1.07 / defence 1.07 against Feyenoord attack 1.25 / defence 0.88, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 32% | Draw 22% | Feyenoord 45%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 61%, Feyenoord 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Heerenveen's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Feyenoord's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Heerenveen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Feyenoord (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights