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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Heerenveen and FC Volendam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 1, as Heerenveen and FC Volendam drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 2.10 xG and FC Volendam 0.96 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Heerenveen fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 1.03 / defence 0.91 against FC Volendam attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 62% | Draw 23% | FC Volendam 15%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 54%, FC Volendam 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Heerenveen's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

FC Volendam's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights