🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Heerenveen edge out Excelsior 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Heerenveen beat Excelsior 2-1 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 2.40 xG and Excelsior 1.21 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 1.02 / defence 1.02 against Excelsior attack 0.82 / defence 1.38, drawn from 41/7 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 64% | Draw 18% | Excelsior 18%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 57%, Excelsior 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Heerenveen's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Excelsior's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Heerenveen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights