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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Heerenveen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over AZ Alkmaar.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Heerenveen beat AZ Alkmaar 3-1 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 1.21 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.37 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Heerenveen beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 0.98 / defence 1.02 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.04 / defence 0.76, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 32% | Draw 28% | AZ Alkmaar 40%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Heerenveen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 63%, AZ Alkmaar 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Heerenveen's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Heerenveen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Heerenveen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights