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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Heerenveen edge out Almere City FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Heerenveen beat Almere City FC 2-1 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 1.81 xG and Almere City FC 0.93 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 1.11 / defence 1.01 against Almere City FC attack 0.70 / defence 1.02, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 58% | Draw 24% | Almere City FC 18%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 64%, Almere City FC 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Heerenveen's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Almere City FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Heerenveen 1.13 PPG, Almere City FC 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heerenveen win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights