🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Groningen and PEC Zwolle share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Groningen and PEC Zwolle finished level at 2-2 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 2.31 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.23 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.92 / defence 0.82 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.02 / defence 1.45, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Groningen 62% | Draw 19% | PEC Zwolle 19%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 50%, PEC Zwolle 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Groningen's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Groningen 1.26 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Groningen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights