Groningen vs PEC Zwolle – Match Report

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Stalemate at Groningen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Euroborg, Regular Season - 15, as Groningen and PEC Zwolle drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.46 xG and PEC Zwolle 0.81 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Groningen fell 1.5 short of their projected output. PEC Zwolle landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.82 / defence 0.80 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.79 / defence 1.05, drawn from 14/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Groningen 52% | Draw 27% | PEC Zwolle 21%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 56%, PEC Zwolle 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Groningen's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Groningen arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights