Groningen vs PEC Zwolle – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Groningen's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against PEC Zwolle's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.75
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.27
0.81
PEC Zwolle xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
5%
20.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.2 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Groningen and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Groningen and 0.81 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.