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Dominant Groningen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of AZ Alkmaar.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Groningen beat AZ Alkmaar 3-0 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.59 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.18 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Groningen beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AZ Alkmaar landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.94 / defence 0.95 against AZ Alkmaar attack 0.92 / defence 1.00, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Groningen 45% | Draw 28% | AZ Alkmaar 27%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 51%, AZ Alkmaar 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Groningen's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Groningen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights