Groningen 0-0 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Groningen vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Groningen host Almere City FC at Euroborg in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 January 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Groningen stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen at Euroborg this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Euroborg. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Groningen are significantly better at Euroborg than their overall form suggests.
Almere City FC — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Groningen 0.70 PPG, Almere City FC 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Groningen's 20% and Almere City FC's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Groningen, 0 for Almere City FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Groningen trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Almere City FC trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 43% versus Almere City FC 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 53% | Almere City FC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.37 xG and Almere City FC 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.713 / defence 0.774 | Almere City FC attack 0.571 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.321. Groningen's attack strength of 0.713 is below the league average — the 1.37 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Groningen's defence rating of 0.774 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 16 Groningen games / 51 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 56% | Draw 28% | Almere City FC 16%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 1.79 | Draw 3.57 | Almere City FC 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Groningen (56%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Almere City FC's lower xG of 0.58 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 20% | Almere City FC 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jan 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 56% | Draw 28% | Almere City FC 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 33% | xG Groningen 1.37 / Almere City FC 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.713 / def 0.774 | Almere City FC attack 0.571 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Groningen (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Almere City FC xG
33%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Almere City FC kick off?
Groningen vs Almere City FC kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 12 January 2025 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Almere City FC?
Groningen 0 - 0 Almere City FC.
Where is Groningen vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Almere City FC part of?
Groningen vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 56% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 16% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Groningen and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Almere City FC?
Record (1 meetings): Groningen 0W | Draws 1 | Almere City FC 0W.
What form are Groningen and Almere City FC in?
Groningen (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Almere City FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Groningen's attack rating (0.71) and Almere City FC's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 0.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.7%), 2-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
56%
1.78
28%
3.57
16%
6.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Groningen xG
Total xG
1.95
0.58
Almere City FC xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
6.30
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.03
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
56%
1.79
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
31%
3.20
4%
24.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.4 | 11.3 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Groningen and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Groningen and 0.58 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Almere City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Groningen's recent record stands at 25W 12D 14L from 51 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 9W 16D 26L across 51 games — 0.84 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Groningen by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almere City FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Groningen have managed 14W 7D 4L from 25 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 4W 8D 13L across 25 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Groningen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Groningen are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 0.84 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Defensively: Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 25W 12D 14L in their last 51 games (1.71 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 9W 16D 26L in their last 51 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Almere City FC away?
Groningen's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.96 PPG; Almere City FC away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Groningen or Almere City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Almere City FC in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Groningen and Almere City FC runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Groningen
2
Draws
0
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Almere City FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Groningen have won 0, Almere City FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2025, when Groningen 0-0 Almere City FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 36%, Almere City FC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Groningen) and 48% (Almere City FC).
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Groningen have failed to score in 32% of games; Almere City FC in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Almere City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Groningen's recent matches and 40% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Groningen's recent games and 48% of Almere City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Groningen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Euroborg, Regular Season - 18, as Groningen and Almere City FC drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.37 xG and Almere City FC 0.58 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Groningen fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.71 / defence 0.77 against Almere City FC attack 0.57 / defence 1.12, drawn from 16/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 56% | Draw 28% | Almere City FC 16%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 53%, Almere City FC 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Almere City FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Groningen arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.