🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Groningen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ajax.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Groningen beat Ajax 3-1 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 26, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.28 xG and Ajax 1.50 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Groningen beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.84 / defence 0.99 against Ajax attack 1.13 / defence 0.93, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Groningen 32% | Draw 27% | Ajax 42%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Groningen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 51%, Ajax 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Groningen's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Ajax's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Groningen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. Ajax (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights