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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant AZ Alkmaar run riot with a 0-3 hammering of GO Ahead Eagles.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AZ Alkmaar beat GO Ahead Eagles 0-3 at De Adelaarshorst, Regular Season - 31, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GO Ahead Eagles 1.76 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.29 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. GO Ahead Eagles fell 1.8 short of their projected output. AZ Alkmaar outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.14 / defence 0.94 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.05 / defence 0.94, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GO Ahead Eagles 47% | Draw 26% | AZ Alkmaar 27%, with GO Ahead Eagles to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual AZ Alkmaar win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GO Ahead Eagles 56%, AZ Alkmaar 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GO Ahead Eagles 1.50 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AZ Alkmaar win broke the near-deadlock. GO Ahead Eagles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights