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Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Sittard edge out Willem II 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortuna Sittard beat Willem II 1-0 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.34 xG and Willem II 1.13 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Willem II landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.66 / defence 1.26 against Willem II attack 0.68 / defence 1.24, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 41% | Draw 29% | Willem II 31%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 56%, Willem II 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

Willem II's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Fortuna Sittard winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights