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Eredivisie · Regular Season - 30

Kick-off

Sun 27 Apr 2025

11:15

Venue

Fortuna Sittard Stadion

Competition

Eredivisie

Netherlands

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Fortuna Sittard Win

41%

Fortuna Sittard

2.46

29%

Draw

3.50

31%

Willem II

3.24

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.8%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

11.3%

Home win

0 – 1

9.6%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.34

Fortuna Sittard xG

Total xG

2.47

1.13

Willem II xG

41%
29%
31%
Fortuna SittardDrawWillem II

2.46

41%

Home win

3.50

29%

Draw

3.24

31%

Away win

Goals Markets

71%

Over 1.5

1.41

29%

Under 1.5

3.45

45%

Over 2.5

2.22

55%

Under 2.5

1.82

24%

Over 3.5

4.17

76%

Under 3.5

1.32

10%

Over 4.5

10.00

90%

Under 4.5

1.11

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

51%

BTTS Yes

1.97

49%

BTTS No

2.03

Clean Sheet

32%

Fortuna Sittard

3.10

26%

Willem II

3.80

Win to Nil

13%

Fortuna Sittard

7.65

8%

Willem II

12.33

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.5 9.6 5.4 2.1 0.6 0.1
1 11.3 12.8 7.3 2.7 0.8 0.2
2 7.6 8.6 4.8 1.8 0.5 0.1
3 3.4 3.8 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.1
4 1.1 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1
5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.336
λ Away (xG) 1.133
Total xG 2.469
League avg home goals 1.641
League avg away goals 1.309
Fortuna Sittard attack strength 0.658
Fortuna Sittard defence strength 1.264
Willem II attack strength 0.684
Willem II defence strength 1.236
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 63 / 29