Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fortuna Sittard at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fortuna Sittard Stadion plays host to Fortuna Sittard versus Utrecht in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 28 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fortuna Sittard's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Sittard's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Fortuna Sittard Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Utrecht have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.90. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Utrecht have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Fortuna Sittard, 1.20 for Utrecht — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Fortuna Sittard register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Utrecht in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Fortuna Sittard 3W, Utrecht 3W, 4D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 0–2 with Utrecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Fortuna Sittard half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Sittard 76% and Utrecht 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 65% | Utrecht 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 2.12 xG and Utrecht 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.941 / defence 0.930 | Utrecht attack 0.909 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.728 / away 1.813. Utrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Fortuna Sittard's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Fortuna Sittard games / 45 Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 51% | Draw 21% | Utrecht 28%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 1.96 | Draw 4.76 | Utrecht 3.57. Fortuna Sittard hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortuna Sittard at 51% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.65 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Sittard 80% | Utrecht 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 51% | Draw 21% | Utrecht 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 69% | xG Fortuna Sittard 2.12 / Utrecht 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.941 / def 0.930 | Utrecht attack 0.909 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.728 / away 1.813 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Utrecht xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 28 February 2027 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 51% chance of winning, Utrecht a 28% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Utrecht?
Record (10 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 3W | Draws 4 | Utrecht 3W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Utrecht in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. Utrecht (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fortuna Sittard's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Utrecht's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.12. Flip it around — Utrecht's attack (0.91x) against Fortuna Sittard's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
51%
1.96
21%
4.78
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
3.65
1.53
Utrecht xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
12%
8.29
Win to Nil
11%
9.06
3%
29.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.53 for Utrecht, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, Fortuna Sittard have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 16W 11D 19L record — D-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Utrecht's form line: 18W 12D 16L from 46 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Fortuna Sittard against 1.43 for Utrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fortuna Sittard have posted 1.43 PPG from 23 outings (9W 6D 8L).
On the road, Utrecht have gone 7W 7D 9L from 23 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.59 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Sittard have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; Utrecht in 67%.
Last 46 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Utrecht in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 16W 11D 19L in their last 46 games (1.28 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 18W 12D 16L in their last 46 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or Utrecht away?
Fortuna Sittard's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.43 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utrecht won 4-0 on 11 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Sittard have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Fortuna Sittard
4
Draws
3
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 3, Utrecht have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Utrecht 2-0 Fortuna Sittard.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Fortuna Sittard, 70% for Utrecht — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Fortuna Sittard and 65% for Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Fortuna Sittard's games and 70% of Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 65% of Utrecht's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and Utrecht tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Utrecht in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
More Dutch football predictions →