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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 22, as Fortuna Sittard and Sparta Rotterdam drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.38 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.58 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.97 / defence 1.06 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.05 / defence 0.85, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 34% | Draw 24% | Sparta Rotterdam 42%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 54%, Sparta Rotterdam 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fortuna Sittard 1.20 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights