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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fortuna Sittard and GO Ahead Eagles share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 1, as Fortuna Sittard and GO Ahead Eagles drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.46 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 1.33 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.79 / defence 0.96 against GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.06 / defence 1.09, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 39% | Draw 29% | GO Ahead Eagles 33%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 50%, GO Ahead Eagles 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fortuna Sittard 1.21 PPG, GO Ahead Eagles 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights