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Shock result as Fortuna Sittard defy the odds to beat AZ Alkmaar 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortuna Sittard beat AZ Alkmaar 4-3 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.15 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.19 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AZ Alkmaar outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.83 / defence 0.95 against AZ Alkmaar attack 0.89 / defence 0.83, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 35% | Draw 28% | AZ Alkmaar 37%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Fortuna Sittard win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 50%, AZ Alkmaar 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Fortuna Sittard winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights