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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ajax cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Fortuna Sittard.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajax beat Fortuna Sittard 0-2 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.05 xG and Ajax 2.21 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.83 / defence 1.29 against Ajax attack 1.24 / defence 0.75, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 17% | Draw 19% | Ajax 64%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 61%, Ajax 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Ajax's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward. Ajax (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights