Feyenoord vs Heracles – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Heracles.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Feyenoord beat Heracles 5-2 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 16, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 1.98 xG and Heracles 0.71 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Feyenoord beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Heracles outscored their 0.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.05 / defence 0.89 against Heracles attack 0.63 / defence 1.12, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 67% | Draw 20% | Heracles 13%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 65%, Heracles 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Feyenoord's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Heracles's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights