Feyenoord vs Heerenveen Prediction & Preview
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 47% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feyenoord vs Heerenveen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Heerenveen travel to De Kuip to take on Feyenoord in Eredivisie (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 March 2027 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Feyenoord have gone 6W 3D 1L — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 3.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Feyenoord's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Heerenveen stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Heerenveen have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Feyenoord 2.10 PPG, Heerenveen 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Feyenoord: 6 wins from 10 H2H matches against 2 for Heerenveen, with 2 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 10 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2026, ended Feyenoord 3–5 Heerenveen — a Heerenveen win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Feyenoord and goals — 6 wins from 10 H2H matches and an average of 3.6 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Feyenoord trading profile (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Heerenveen trading profile (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Feyenoord 63% and Heerenveen 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Feyenoord 61% | Heerenveen 70%). Note also that Heerenveen surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Feyenoord recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 1.90 xG and Heerenveen 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.130 / defence 0.766 | Heerenveen attack 1.060 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.799 / away 1.879. Feyenoord have a tight defence (rating 0.766), which is pulling Heerenveen's projected output down. Data: built from Feyenoord's last 46 games and Heerenveen's last 46.
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 47% | Draw 22% | Heerenveen 31%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 2.14 | Draw 4.52 | Heerenveen 3.21. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.90 / 1.53) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Feyenoord 6 wins from 10 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Feyenoord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.43 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Feyenoord's last 10 home games and Heerenveen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 10 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Feyenoord 80% (last 10 home games) | Heerenveen 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 25 | Venue: De Kuip • Kick-off: Sunday 7 March 2027 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 47% | Draw 22% | Heerenveen 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Feyenoord 1.90 / Heerenveen 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.130 / def 0.766 | Heerenveen attack 1.060 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.799 / away 1.879 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Heerenveen xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Feyenoord vs Heerenveen FAQs
What time does Feyenoord vs Heerenveen kick off?
Feyenoord vs Heerenveen is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 7 March 2027 at De Kuip.
Where is Feyenoord vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at De Kuip.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Heerenveen part of?
Feyenoord vs Heerenveen is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 25) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 47% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 31% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Feyenoord and Heerenveen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Feyenoord vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Feyenoord's attack at 1.13x the league average against Heerenveen's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Heerenveen's attack versus Feyenoord's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Feyenoord's last 46 games and Heerenveen's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
47%
2.14
22%
4.52
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.43
1.53
Heerenveen xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
15%
6.71
Win to Nil
10%
9.86
5%
21.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Feyenoord vs Heerenveen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.53 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Heerenveen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Feyenoord's recent record stands at 26W 12D 8L from 46 games, a 1.96 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five.
Heerenveen, meanwhile, have gone 20W 11D 15L across 46 games — 1.54 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Feyenoord by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Heerenveen heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Feyenoord have managed 13W 6D 3L from their last 22 home games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heerenveen's away record stands at 8W 5D 9L across their last 22 away games, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Feyenoord are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.78 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Feyenoord have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
Feyenoord (Home) vs Heerenveen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Feyenoord
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
❓ Feyenoord vs Heerenveen Form FAQs
What form are Feyenoord and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 26W 12D 8L in their last 46 games (1.96 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 20W 11D 15L in their last 46 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Heerenveen away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.05 PPG; Heerenveen away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Heerenveen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Heerenveen in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Sep 2023, when Feyenoord won Feyenoord 6-1 Heerenveen.
Feyenoord's record when hosting Heerenveen specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Feyenoord
2
Draws
2
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Feyenoord vs Heerenveen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Heerenveen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Feyenoord have won 6, Heerenveen have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Heerenveen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Heerenveen 5-3 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Heerenveen?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 73%, Heerenveen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Feyenoord and 73% for Heerenveen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heerenveen in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Feyenoord vs Heerenveen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Feyenoord and Heerenveen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Feyenoord's games and 54% of Heerenveen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Feyenoord and Heerenveen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Feyenoord's matches and 73% of Heerenveen's.
Do Feyenoord and Heerenveen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 77% of Heerenveen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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