Excelsior vs Heerenveen – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Heerenveen at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs Heerenveen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Woudestein plays host to Excelsior versus Heerenveen in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 28 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Excelsior have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Excelsior have posted 2W 1D 7L at Stadion Woudestein — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Woudestein this season.
Heerenveen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Heerenveen have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Excelsior against 1.20 for Heerenveen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Excelsior lead 2W to 4W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2026, ended 0–4 with Heerenveen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Excelsior half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Heerenveen half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior 65% and Heerenveen 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Excelsior 70% | Heerenveen 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.28 xG and Heerenveen 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.829 / defence 1.167 | Heerenveen attack 0.992 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.782. Data: 43 Excelsior games / 43 Heerenveen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 22% | Draw 24% | Heerenveen 54%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Heerenveen 1.85. Heerenveen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 2.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Heerenveen at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Heerenveen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.35 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 70% | Heerenveen 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion Woudestein • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 22% | Draw 24% | Heerenveen 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Excelsior 1.28 / Heerenveen 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.829 / def 1.167 | Heerenveen attack 0.992 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.782 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
2.06
Heerenveen xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Heerenveen kick off?
Excelsior vs Heerenveen is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 28 February 2027 at Stadion Woudestein.
Where is Excelsior vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Woudestein.
What competition is Excelsior vs Heerenveen part of?
Excelsior vs Heerenveen is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 22% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Excelsior and Heerenveen will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Heerenveen?
Record (7 meetings): Excelsior 2W | Draws 1 | Heerenveen 4W.
What form are Excelsior and Heerenveen in?
Excelsior (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Heerenveen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Excelsior's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Heerenveen's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Heerenveen's attack (0.99x) against Excelsior's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 2.06.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
22%
4.55
24%
4.14
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
0 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Excelsior xG
Total xG
3.35
2.06
Heerenveen xG
4.55
22%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
13%
7.87
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
3%
35.79
15%
6.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Excelsior and 2.06 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Heerenveen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Excelsior come into this having played 43 games, going 13W 10D 20L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Heerenveen sit at 1.44 PPG from 43 outings (17W 11D 15L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Heerenveen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Excelsior against 1.44 for Heerenveen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Excelsior's home form reads 6W 3D 12L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Heerenveen have taken 1.24 points per game from 21 outings (7W 5D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Excelsior are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.70 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 13W 10D 20L in their last 43 games (1.14 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 17W 11D 15L in their last 43 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Heerenveen away?
Heerenveen's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.00 PPG; Heerenveen away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 16 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Heerenveen go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Heerenveen won 4-0 on 16 Oct 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Heerenveen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Excelsior
1
Draws
4
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Heerenveen?
From 7 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 2, Heerenveen have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Heerenveen last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2026, when Heerenveen 4-0 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Heerenveen?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 62%, Heerenveen 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Excelsior and 71% for Heerenveen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heerenveen in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Heerenveen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Excelsior's games and 52% of Heerenveen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs Heerenveen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Excelsior's matches and 71% of Heerenveen's.
Do Excelsior and Heerenveen tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Heerenveen in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.