Feyenoord 2-1 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Feyenoord at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AZ Alkmaar make the trip to Stadion Feijenoord to face Feyenoord in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 February 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Feyenoord (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Stadion Feijenoord this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Feijenoord.
AZ Alkmaar have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, AZ Alkmaar have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.20 PPG for Feyenoord against 2.10 for AZ Alkmaar. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Feyenoord lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 3–1 with Feyenoord winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Feyenoord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
AZ Alkmaar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Feyenoord 56% and AZ Alkmaar 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 60% | AZ Alkmaar 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 1.45 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.198 / defence 0.820 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.326 / defence 0.807. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.164. AZ Alkmaar have an above-average attack strength of 1.326 — the away xG of 1.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Feyenoord games / 55 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 39% | Draw 31% | AZ Alkmaar 30%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | AZ Alkmaar 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Feyenoord are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Feyenoord if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Feyenoord 40% | AZ Alkmaar 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 39% | Draw 31% | AZ Alkmaar 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Feyenoord 1.45 / AZ Alkmaar 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.198 / def 0.820 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.326 / def 0.807 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
1.27
AZ Alkmaar xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar?
Feyenoord 2 - 1 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 39% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (3 meetings): Feyenoord 2W | Draws 0 | AZ Alkmaar 1W.
What form are Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Feyenoord's attack rating (1.20) and AZ Alkmaar's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AZ Alkmaar's attack (1.33x) against Feyenoord's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
39%
2.59
31%
3.19
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
2.72
1.27
AZ Alkmaar xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
11%
9.19
7%
14.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.1 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.27 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Feyenoord's recent record stands at 35W 12D 8L from 55 games, a 2.13 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AZ Alkmaar, meanwhile, have gone 32W 12D 11L across 55 games — 1.96 PPG, with W-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.13 PPG for Feyenoord against 1.96 for AZ Alkmaar. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Feyenoord have managed 17W 7D 3L from 27 games — 2.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AZ Alkmaar's away record stands at 14W 5D 8L across 27 trips, a 1.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Feyenoord are averaging 2.24 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 2.11 scored and 1.22 conceded. AZ Alkmaar's attacking output running into Feyenoord's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar in 75%.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 35W 12D 8L in their last 55 games (2.13 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 32W 12D 11L in their last 55 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.15 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or AZ Alkmaar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, AZ Alkmaar in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Feyenoord have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AZ Alkmaar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Feyenoord
2
Draws
1
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar?
From 10 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 7, AZ Alkmaar have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Feyenoord 1-1 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 48%, AZ Alkmaar 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Feyenoord and 70% for AZ Alkmaar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play AZ Alkmaar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Feyenoord's games and 74% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Feyenoord's matches and 70% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out AZ Alkmaar 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat AZ Alkmaar 2-1 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 1.45 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.27 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.20 / defence 0.82 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.33 / defence 0.81, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 39% | Draw 31% | AZ Alkmaar 30%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 60%, AZ Alkmaar 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Feyenoord 2.13 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 1.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Feyenoord win broke the near-deadlock. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.