Excelsior 0-3 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Excelsior take on NEC Nijmegen.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Excelsior host NEC Nijmegen at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 February 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Excelsior have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior's home record at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Excelsior are significantly better at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, NEC Nijmegen stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour NEC Nijmegen — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Excelsior, 0 for NEC Nijmegen and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Excelsior trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
NEC Nijmegen trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 56% versus NEC Nijmegen 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 62% | NEC Nijmegen 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 0.89 xG and NEC Nijmegen 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.699 / defence 1.085 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.631 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.153. Excelsior's attack strength of 0.699 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 Excelsior games / 55 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 33% | Draw 40% | NEC Nijmegen 27%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 3.03 | Draw 2.50 | NEC Nijmegen 3.70. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.68. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.68 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — NEC Nijmegen's lower xG of 0.79 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.68 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 50% | NEC Nijmegen 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 33% | Draw 40% | NEC Nijmegen 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 35% | xG Excelsior 0.89 / NEC Nijmegen 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.699 / def 1.085 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.631 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
0.79
NEC Nijmegen xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 19 February 2023 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen?
Excelsior 0 - 3 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 33% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 27% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (1 meetings): Excelsior 0W | Draws 1 | NEC Nijmegen 0W.
What form are Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen in?
Excelsior (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Excelsior's attack rating (0.70) and NEC Nijmegen's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, NEC Nijmegen's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.04
40%
2.49
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Excelsior xG
Total xG
1.68
0.79
NEC Nijmegen xG
3.04
33%
Home win
2.49
40%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
15%
6.71
11%
9.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.6 | 14.7 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.1 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.3%.
How many goals are Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Excelsior and 0.79 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 1.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Excelsior's recent record stands at 22W 13D 20L from 55 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NEC Nijmegen, meanwhile, have gone 14W 20D 21L across 55 games — 1.13 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Excelsior on 1.44 PPG, NEC Nijmegen on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Excelsior have managed 12W 7D 8L from 27 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NEC Nijmegen's away record stands at 9W 7D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Excelsior are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.13 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 22W 13D 20L in their last 55 games (1.44 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 14W 20D 21L in their last 55 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
Excelsior's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.59 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
NEC Nijmegen go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Aug 2025, when NEC Nijmegen won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior's record when hosting NEC Nijmegen specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Excelsior
1
Draws
4
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen?
From 6 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 1, NEC Nijmegen have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Excelsior 0-2 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 59%, NEC Nijmegen 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Excelsior) and 41% (NEC Nijmegen).
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play NEC Nijmegen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Excelsior's recent matches and 48% of NEC Nijmegen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Excelsior's recent games and 41% of NEC Nijmegen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant NEC Nijmegen run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Excelsior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat Excelsior 0-3 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 0.89 xG and NEC Nijmegen 0.79 xG, a combined 1.68. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Excelsior fell 0.9 short of their projected output. NEC Nijmegen outscored their 0.79 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.70 / defence 1.08 against NEC Nijmegen attack 0.63 / defence 0.83, drawn from 21/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 33% | Draw 40% | NEC Nijmegen 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual NEC Nijmegen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 62%, NEC Nijmegen 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.44 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEC Nijmegen win broke the near-deadlock. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.