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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar finished level at 1-1 at De Kuip, Regular Season - 33, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 1.88 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.05 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Feyenoord fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.21 / defence 1.02 against AZ Alkmaar attack 0.80 / defence 0.91, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 54% | Draw 28% | AZ Alkmaar 18%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 61%, AZ Alkmaar 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Feyenoord's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Feyenoord 1.95 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.34 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights