Feyenoord vs Ajax – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajax at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feyenoord vs Ajax encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Feyenoord host Ajax at De Kuip in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 November 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Feyenoord — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord at De Kuip this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Ajax have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajax's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Feyenoord) versus 2.10 (Ajax). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Feyenoord have won 3, Ajax 5, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Feyenoord in-play tendencies (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Ajax in-play tendencies (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Feyenoord 62% and Ajax 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 60% | Ajax 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 1.48 xG and Ajax 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.140 / defence 0.759 | Ajax attack 1.417 / defence 0.749. League average goals — home 1.731 / away 1.842. Ajax's defence strength of 0.749 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Ajax have an above-average attack strength of 1.417 — the away xG of 1.98 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Feyenoord's defence rating of 0.759 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Feyenoord games / 45 Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 29% | Draw 22% | Ajax 49%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 3.45 | Draw 4.55 | Ajax 2.04. Ajax hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.98) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ajax are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajax offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 80% | Ajax 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Ajax | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: De Kuip • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 29% | Draw 22% | Ajax 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Feyenoord 1.48 / Ajax 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.140 / def 0.759 | Ajax attack 1.417 / def 0.749 | league avg home 1.731 / away 1.842 • Poisson stance: Ajax (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
1.98
Ajax xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Ajax kick off?
Feyenoord vs Ajax is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at De Kuip.
Where is Feyenoord vs Ajax being played?
The match is being played at De Kuip.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Ajax part of?
Feyenoord vs Ajax is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 29% chance of winning, Ajax a 49% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Ajax?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Feyenoord and Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Ajax?
Record (10 meetings): Feyenoord 3W | Draws 2 | Ajax 5W.
What form are Feyenoord and Ajax in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Ajax (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Feyenoord's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Ajax's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Ajax's attack versus Feyenoord's defence, projects 1.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
29%
3.48
22%
4.54
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.46
1.98
Ajax xG
3.48
29%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
14%
7.24
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
4%
25.22
11%
8.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.98 for Ajax, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Feyenoord come into this having played 45 games, going 26W 12D 7L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ajax sit at 1.78 PPG from 45 outings (21W 17D 7L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Feyenoord on 2.00 PPG, Ajax on 1.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Feyenoord's home form reads 12W 6D 3L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajax have taken 1.86 points per game from 21 outings (10W 9D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Feyenoord are averaging 2.29 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Ajax are on 2.00 scored and 1.16 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Feyenoord have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Ajax in 67%.
Last 45 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Ajax in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 26W 12D 7L in their last 45 games (2.00 PPG), while Ajax have gone 21W 17D 7L in their last 45 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Ajax away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.00 PPG; Ajax away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Ajax in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Feyenoord and Ajax runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Apr 2024, when Feyenoord won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Feyenoord's record when hosting Ajax specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Feyenoord
2
Draws
5
Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Ajax?
From 10 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 3, Ajax have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Feyenoord 1-1 Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Ajax?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Feyenoord at 76%, Ajax at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Feyenoord and 67% for Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Feyenoord's games and 71% of Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Feyenoord vs Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Feyenoord's matches and 67% of Ajax's.
Do Feyenoord and Ajax tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Ajax in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.