Feyenoord 1-1 Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Feyenoord at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Feyenoord face Ajax.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Feyenoord host Ajax at De Kuip in Eredivisie (matchday 28). Kick-off is Sunday 22 March 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Feyenoord — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Feyenoord at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Ajax have recorded 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ajax's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Feyenoord) versus 1.70 (Ajax). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams have scored in at least 90% of each side's games (from Feyenoord's last 10 home games and Ajax's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 9 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Feyenoord, 5 for Ajax and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2025, ended Feyenoord 0–2 Ajax — a Ajax win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Feyenoord in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Ajax in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 85% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 61% versus Ajax 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 62% | Ajax 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.13 xG and Ajax 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.232 / defence 1.091 | Ajax attack 1.082 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.356. Data: built from Feyenoord's last 61 games and Ajax's last 61.
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 49% | Draw 23% | Ajax 28%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 2.03 | Draw 4.42 | Ajax 3.54. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS Yes probability 71% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% — both xG figures (2.13 / 1.60) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Feyenoord are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Feyenoord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Feyenoord's last 10 home games and Ajax's last 10 away games) averaging 4.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Feyenoord 90% (last 10 home games) | Ajax 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Ajax | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 28 | Venue: De Kuip • Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 49% | Draw 23% | Ajax 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% (Under 28%) | BTTS Yes 71% (No 29%) | xG Feyenoord 2.13 / Ajax 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.232 / def 1.091 | Ajax attack 1.082 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Ajax xG
71%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Feyenoord vs Ajax FAQs
What time does Feyenoord vs Ajax kick off?
Feyenoord vs Ajax kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 22 March 2026 at De Kuip.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Ajax?
Feyenoord 1 - 1 Ajax.
Where is Feyenoord vs Ajax being played?
The match is being played at De Kuip.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Ajax part of?
Feyenoord vs Ajax is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 28) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 49% chance of winning, Ajax a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Ajax?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Feyenoord and Ajax will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Feyenoord vs Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Feyenoord's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Ajax's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.13. The same calculation in reverse, Ajax's attack versus Feyenoord's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Feyenoord's last 61 games and Ajax's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
49%
2.03
23%
4.42
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.73
1.60
Ajax xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.48
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
12%
8.43
Win to Nil
10%
10.10
3%
29.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Feyenoord vs Ajax Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.60 for Ajax, a combined total of 3.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Feyenoord come into this having played 61 games, going 36W 12D 13L for 1.97 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, Ajax sit at 2.05 PPG from 61 outings (36W 17D 8L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Feyenoord on 1.97 PPG, Ajax on 2.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Feyenoord's home form reads 21W 3D 6L across their last 30 home games, a 2.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajax have taken 1.77 points per game from their last 30 away games (14W 11D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Feyenoord are averaging 2.23 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Ajax are on 1.95 scored and 1.08 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Feyenoord have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ajax in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
Ajax
Blended
Feyenoord (Home) vs Ajax (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Feyenoord
Blended
Ajax
Blended
❓ Feyenoord vs Ajax Form FAQs
What form are Feyenoord and Ajax in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 36W 12D 13L in their last 61 games (1.97 PPG), while Ajax have gone 36W 17D 8L in their last 61 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Ajax away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.20 PPG; Ajax away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Ajax in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Apr 2024, when Feyenoord won Feyenoord 6-0 Ajax.
Feyenoord's record when hosting Ajax specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Feyenoord
2
Draws
5
Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Feyenoord vs Ajax H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Ajax?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Feyenoord have won 3, Ajax have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Ajax last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 March 2026: Feyenoord 1-1 Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Ajax?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Feyenoord at 63%, Ajax at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Feyenoord and 60% for Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Feyenoord vs Ajax Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Feyenoord and Ajax matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Feyenoord's games and 67% of Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Feyenoord and Ajax matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Feyenoord's matches and 60% of Ajax's.
Do Feyenoord and Ajax matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 70% of Ajax's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feyenoord and Ajax share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord and Ajax finished level at 1-1 at De Kuip, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.13 xG and Ajax 1.60 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Feyenoord fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.23 / defence 1.09 against Ajax attack 1.08 / defence 1.02, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 49% | Draw 23% | Ajax 28%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 62%, Ajax 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Ajax's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Feyenoord 1.97 PPG, Ajax 2.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.37 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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