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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Volendam and Twente share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Volendam and Twente finished level at 1-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.45 xG and Twente 1.62 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.91 / defence 0.97 against Twente attack 1.15 / defence 0.92, drawn from 12/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 34% | Draw 24% | Twente 42%, with Twente to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 77%, Twente 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Volendam's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Twente's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.52. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.54 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights