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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Volendam defy the odds to beat PEC Zwolle 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Volendam beat PEC Zwolle 2-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.35 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.77 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.79 / defence 1.18 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.04 / defence 1.03, drawn from 6/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 29% | Draw 23% | PEC Zwolle 48%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual FC Volendam win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 75%, PEC Zwolle 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Volendam's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights