FC Volendam 2-1 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PEC Zwolle at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Volendam host PEC Zwolle at Kras Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 September 2025 at 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, FC Volendam have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Volendam have posted 5W 2D 3L at Kras Stadion — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FC Volendam are significantly better at Kras Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PEC Zwolle stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. PEC Zwolle have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PEC Zwolle away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour PEC Zwolle — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for FC Volendam, 1 for PEC Zwolle and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Volendam trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
PEC Zwolle trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 68% and PEC Zwolle 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 75% | PEC Zwolle 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.35 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.787 / defence 1.177 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.036 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.454. FC Volendam's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 FC Volendam games / 40 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 29% | Draw 23% | PEC Zwolle 48%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 3.45 | Draw 4.35 | PEC Zwolle 2.08. PEC Zwolle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PEC Zwolle at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 80% | PEC Zwolle 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Sep 2025, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 29% | Draw 23% | PEC Zwolle 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG FC Volendam 1.35 / PEC Zwolle 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.787 / def 1.177 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.036 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.454 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.77
PEC Zwolle xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 27 September 2025 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle?
FC Volendam 2 - 1 PEC Zwolle.
Where is FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle part of?
FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 29% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 48% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FC Volendam and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and PEC Zwolle?
Record (2 meetings): FC Volendam 0W | Draws 1 | PEC Zwolle 1W.
What form are FC Volendam and PEC Zwolle in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 0.79x the league average against PEC Zwolle's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
29%
3.42
23%
4.31
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.12
1.77
PEC Zwolle xG
3.42
29%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
17%
5.89
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
5%
20.12
12%
8.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.5 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.77 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Volendam come into this having played 40 games, going 25W 8D 7L for 2.08 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, PEC Zwolle sit at 1.20 PPG from 40 outings (12W 12D 16L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Volendam carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.88 PPG clear of PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Volendam's home form reads 14W 2D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return.
Away from home, PEC Zwolle have taken 1.00 points per game from 20 outings (4W 8D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Volendam are averaging 2.15 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.23 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Early Season
PEC Zwolle
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 25W 8D 7L in their last 40 games (2.08 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 12W 12D 16L in their last 40 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or PEC Zwolle away?
FC Volendam's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 2.20 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Volendam and PEC Zwolle runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Volendam go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Dec 2023, when PEC Zwolle won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting PEC Zwolle specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
1
Draws
1
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and PEC Zwolle?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, PEC Zwolle have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when PEC Zwolle 1-2 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and PEC Zwolle?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 65%, PEC Zwolle 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for FC Volendam and 50% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; PEC Zwolle in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of FC Volendam's games and 60% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of FC Volendam's matches and 50% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do FC Volendam and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Volendam defy the odds to beat PEC Zwolle 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat PEC Zwolle 2-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.35 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.77 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.79 / defence 1.18 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.04 / defence 1.03, drawn from 6/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 29% | Draw 23% | PEC Zwolle 48%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual FC Volendam win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 75%, PEC Zwolle 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.