🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as FC Volendam edge out NAC Breda 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Volendam beat NAC Breda 2-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.79 xG and NAC Breda 1.38 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.89 / defence 0.98 against NAC Breda attack 0.93 / defence 1.16, drawn from 11/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 47% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 30%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 76%, NAC Breda 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Volendam's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

NAC Breda's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights