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Heerenveen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC Volendam.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Heerenveen beat FC Volendam 0-2 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.56 xG and Heerenveen 1.37 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC Volendam fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.83 / defence 1.03 against Heerenveen attack 1.05 / defence 1.09, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 38% | Draw 31% | Heerenveen 30%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Heerenveen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 70%, Heerenveen 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Volendam's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Heerenveen's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Volendam 1.71 PPG, Heerenveen 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heerenveen win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Heerenveen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights