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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Volendam edge out Groningen 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Volendam beat Groningen 3-2 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.39 xG and Groningen 1.14 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC Volendam beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Groningen outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.92 / defence 0.96 against Groningen attack 0.87 / defence 0.92, drawn from 24/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 42% | Draw 28% | Groningen 30%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 71%, Groningen 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Volendam's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Groningen's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Volendam (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights