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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Volendam and GO Ahead Eagles share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Volendam and GO Ahead Eagles finished level at 1-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.75 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 1.43 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.89 / defence 1.01 against GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.00 / defence 1.18, drawn from 20/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 45% | Draw 23% | GO Ahead Eagles 32%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 72%, GO Ahead Eagles 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Volendam's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward. GO Ahead Eagles (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights