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Shock result as Excelsior defy the odds to beat FC Volendam 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Excelsior beat FC Volendam 1-2 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 2.30 xG and Excelsior 1.12 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Volendam fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Excelsior outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.90 / defence 1.10 against Excelsior attack 0.72 / defence 1.54, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 64% | Draw 19% | Excelsior 17%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Excelsior win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 74%, Excelsior 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Volendam's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Excelsior's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Volendam 2.00 PPG, Excelsior 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Excelsior win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights