FC Volendam 1-2 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs Excelsior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kras Stadion plays host to FC Volendam versus Excelsior in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 20 September 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Volendam have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Volendam have posted 6W 2D 2L at Kras Stadion — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — FC Volendam are significantly better at Kras Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Excelsior (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Excelsior have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Excelsior have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for FC Volendam, 1.50 for Excelsior — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC Volendam register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Excelsior in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for FC Volendam, 4 for Excelsior and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2025, ended 1–4 with Excelsior winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
FC Volendam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Excelsior goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 65% versus Excelsior 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 74% | Excelsior 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.30 xG and Excelsior 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.903 / defence 1.103 | Excelsior attack 0.719 / defence 1.537. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.418. Excelsior bring a strong defensive rating of 1.537 — this is suppressing FC Volendam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 FC Volendam games / 5 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 64% | Draw 19% | Excelsior 17%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.56 | Draw 5.26 | Excelsior 5.88. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.30 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.43 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 80% | Excelsior 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Excelsior | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Sep 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 64% | Draw 19% | Excelsior 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 61% | xG FC Volendam 2.30 / Excelsior 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.903 / def 1.103 | Excelsior attack 0.719 / def 1.537 | league avg home 1.659 / away 1.418 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Excelsior xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Excelsior kick off?
FC Volendam vs Excelsior kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 20 September 2025 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Excelsior?
FC Volendam 1 - 2 Excelsior.
Where is FC Volendam vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Excelsior part of?
FC Volendam vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 64% chance of winning, Excelsior a 17% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FC Volendam and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Excelsior?
Record (8 meetings): FC Volendam 2W | Draws 2 | Excelsior 4W.
What form are FC Volendam and Excelsior in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Excelsior (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Volendam's attack rating (0.90) and Excelsior's defence rating (1.54), the model arrives at 2.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Excelsior's attack (0.72x) against FC Volendam's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
64%
1.57
19%
5.28
17%
5.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.43
1.12
Excelsior xG
1.57
64%
Home win
5.28
19%
Draw
5.78
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
10%
10.00
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
2%
57.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.5 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.12 for Excelsior, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Excelsior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Volendam come into this having played 43 games, going 26W 8D 9L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Excelsior sit at 1.79 PPG from 43 outings (23W 8D 12L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Excelsior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for FC Volendam against 1.79 for Excelsior. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FC Volendam's home form reads 15W 2D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Excelsior have taken 1.38 points per game from 21 outings (8W 5D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Excelsior's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Volendam are averaging 2.16 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 1.79 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Early Season
Excelsior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Excelsior in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 26W 8D 9L in their last 43 games (2.00 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 23W 8D 12L in their last 43 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Excelsior away?
FC Volendam's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 2.24 PPG; Excelsior away: 1.38 PPG.
Have FC Volendam or Excelsior been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Excelsior in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Excelsior won 4-0 on 12 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Excelsior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
3
Draws
5
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Excelsior?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, Excelsior have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Excelsior 1-1 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Excelsior?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 57%, Excelsior 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for FC Volendam and 71% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Excelsior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of FC Volendam's games and 67% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of FC Volendam's matches and 71% of Excelsior's.
Do FC Volendam and Excelsior tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Excelsior defy the odds to beat FC Volendam 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat FC Volendam 1-2 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 2.30 xG and Excelsior 1.12 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Volendam fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Excelsior outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.90 / defence 1.10 against Excelsior attack 0.72 / defence 1.54, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 64% | Draw 19% | Excelsior 17%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Excelsior win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 74%, Excelsior 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Excelsior's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Volendam 2.00 PPG, Excelsior 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Excelsior win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.