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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Volendam and Ajax share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 4, as FC Volendam and Ajax drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.58 xG and Ajax 1.69 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.93 / defence 1.19 against Ajax attack 1.10 / defence 0.95, drawn from 3/37 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 35% | Draw 25% | Ajax 40%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 76%, Ajax 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Volendam's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Ajax's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Volendam 2.22 PPG, Ajax 2.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights