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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Excelsior and Telstar share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Excelsior and Telstar finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Woudestein, Regular Season - 19, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 0.91 xG and Telstar 0.89 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Excelsior beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Telstar outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.66 / defence 0.98 against Telstar attack 0.65 / defence 0.81, drawn from 17/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Excelsior 34% | Draw 33% | Telstar 33%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 60%, Telstar 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Excelsior's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Telstar's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.69 PPG, Telstar 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Excelsior (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Telstar (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights