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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Heerenveen edge out Excelsior 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Heerenveen beat Excelsior 1-2 at Stadion Woudestein, Regular Season - 26, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.25 xG and Heerenveen 1.70 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.69 / defence 1.14 against Heerenveen attack 1.12 / defence 1.10, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Excelsior 28% | Draw 25% | Heerenveen 47%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 58%, Heerenveen 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Excelsior's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Heerenveen's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.60 PPG, Heerenveen 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heerenveen win broke the near-deadlock. Excelsior (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Heerenveen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.23 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights