Excelsior 1-2 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Heerenveen at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs Heerenveen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Woudestein plays host to Excelsior versus Heerenveen in Eredivisie (matchday 26). Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Excelsior have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Excelsior have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Heerenveen's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Heerenveen have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Heerenveen are 0.70 PPG clear of Excelsior over their recent games (1.70 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Excelsior's last 10 home games and Heerenveen's last 10 away games) — Excelsior have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Heerenveen in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2025, ended Excelsior 1–2 Heerenveen — a Heerenveen win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Excelsior half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Heerenveen half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 55% versus Heerenveen 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 58% | Heerenveen 62%). Note also that Heerenveen surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Excelsior recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.25 xG and Heerenveen 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.689 / defence 1.143 | Heerenveen attack 1.118 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.329. Excelsior's attack rating of 0.689 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.25. Data: built from Excelsior's last 25 games and Heerenveen's last 59.
Result probabilities: Excelsior 28% | Draw 25% | Heerenveen 47%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 3.64 | Draw 3.93 | Heerenveen 2.12. Heerenveen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Heerenveen at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Heerenveen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Excelsior's last 10 home games and Heerenveen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Excelsior 60% (last 10 home games) | Heerenveen 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 26 | Venue: Stadion Woudestein • Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 28% | Draw 25% | Heerenveen 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Excelsior 1.25 / Heerenveen 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.689 / def 1.143 | Heerenveen attack 1.118 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Heerenveen xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Excelsior vs Heerenveen FAQs
What time does Excelsior vs Heerenveen kick off?
Excelsior vs Heerenveen kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Stadion Woudestein.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Heerenveen?
Excelsior 1 - 2 Heerenveen.
Where is Excelsior vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Woudestein.
What competition is Excelsior vs Heerenveen part of?
Excelsior vs Heerenveen is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 26) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 28% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Excelsior and Heerenveen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Excelsior vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Excelsior's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Heerenveen's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Heerenveen's attack (1.12x) against Excelsior's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from Excelsior's last 25 games and Heerenveen's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
28%
3.64
25%
3.93
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.95
1.70
Heerenveen xG
3.64
28%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
18%
5.46
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
5%
19.86
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Excelsior vs Heerenveen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.70 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Heerenveen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Excelsior come into this having played 60 games, going 28W 12D 20L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Heerenveen sit at 1.28 PPG from 60 outings (21W 14D 25L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Excelsior against 1.28 for Heerenveen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Excelsior's home form reads 16W 5D 9L across their last 30 home games, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Heerenveen have taken 0.70 points per game from their last 30 away games (6W 3D 21L). That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heerenveen's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Excelsior are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.42 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Heerenveen in 62%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
Excelsior (Home) vs Heerenveen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Excelsior
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
❓ Excelsior vs Heerenveen Form FAQs
What form are Excelsior and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 28W 12D 20L in their last 60 games (1.60 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 21W 14D 25L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Heerenveen away?
Excelsior's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.77 PPG; Heerenveen away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Excelsior or Heerenveen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Heerenveen in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 16 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Heerenveen have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Heerenveen won Heerenveen 4-0 Excelsior on 16 Oct 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Heerenveen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Excelsior
1
Draws
4
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Excelsior vs Heerenveen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Heerenveen?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Excelsior have won 2, Heerenveen have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Heerenveen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 October 2026: Heerenveen 4-0 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Heerenveen?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 43%, Heerenveen 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Excelsior) and 70% (Heerenveen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Heerenveen in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Excelsior vs Heerenveen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Excelsior and Heerenveen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Excelsior's recent matches and 53% of Heerenveen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Excelsior and Heerenveen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Excelsior's matches and 70% of Heerenveen's.
Do Excelsior and Heerenveen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Excelsior's recent matches and 77% of Heerenveen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Heerenveen edge out Excelsior 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heerenveen beat Excelsior 1-2 at Stadion Woudestein, Regular Season - 26, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.25 xG and Heerenveen 1.70 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.69 / defence 1.14 against Heerenveen attack 1.12 / defence 1.10, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 28% | Draw 25% | Heerenveen 47%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 58%, Heerenveen 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Heerenveen's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.60 PPG, Heerenveen 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heerenveen win broke the near-deadlock. Excelsior (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Heerenveen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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