Emmen 1-3 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs Feyenoord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Emmen host Feyenoord at De Oude Meerdijk in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 May 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Emmen have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Emmen's home record at De Oude Meerdijk: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Feyenoord stand at 10W 0D 0L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Feyenoord's form when playing away from home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Feyenoord — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (3.00 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Emmen, 1 for Feyenoord and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 0–4 with Feyenoord winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Emmen in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Feyenoord in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 46% versus Feyenoord 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 48% | Feyenoord 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 0.74 xG and Feyenoord 2.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.612 / defence 1.160 | Feyenoord attack 1.509 / defence 0.746. League average goals — home 1.618 / away 1.246. Emmen's attack strength of 0.612 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Feyenoord's defence strength of 0.746 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.509 — the away xG of 2.18 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 32 Emmen games / 66 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 10% | Draw 21% | Feyenoord 69%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 10.00 | Draw 4.76 | Feyenoord 1.45. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (69%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Feyenoord are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 30% | Feyenoord 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 10% | Draw 21% | Feyenoord 69% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 48% | xG Emmen 0.74 / Feyenoord 2.18 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.612 / def 1.160 | Feyenoord attack 1.509 / def 0.746 | league avg home 1.618 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
2.18
Feyenoord xG
48%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Feyenoord kick off?
Emmen vs Feyenoord kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 21 May 2023 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Feyenoord?
Emmen 1 - 3 Feyenoord.
Where is Emmen vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Feyenoord part of?
Emmen vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 10% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 69% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Emmen and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Feyenoord?
Record (1 meetings): Emmen 0W | Draws 0 | Feyenoord 1W.
What form are Emmen and Feyenoord in?
Emmen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Feyenoord (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Emmen's attacking strength (0.61x league average) is weighed against Feyenoord's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.74. The same calculation in reverse, Feyenoord's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 2.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 12.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 1-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
10%
10.22
21%
4.71
69%
1.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.92
2.18
Feyenoord xG
10.22
10%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
1.45
69%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
11%
8.86
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
1%
90.63
33%
3.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 11.8 | 12.8 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Emmen and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Emmen and 2.18 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Feyenoord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Emmen come into this having played 66 games, going 31W 14D 21L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Feyenoord sit at 2.27 PPG from 66 outings (46W 12D 8L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Emmen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Emmen's home form reads 18W 9D 6L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Feyenoord have taken 2.24 points per game from 33 outings (23W 5D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Emmen are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.33 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Feyenoord in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Current Season
Feyenoord
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 31W 14D 21L in their last 66 games (1.62 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 46W 12D 8L in their last 66 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.91 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.24 PPG.
Have Emmen or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Emmen and Feyenoord runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Emmen
0
Draws
2
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Feyenoord?
From 2 meetings on record, Emmen have won 0, Feyenoord have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2023, when Emmen 1-3 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 39%, Feyenoord 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Emmen) and 67% (Feyenoord). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Feyenoord in 36%; Emmen have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Feyenoord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Emmen's recent matches and 64% of Feyenoord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Emmen's matches and 67% of Feyenoord's.
Do Emmen and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feyenoord cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Emmen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Emmen 1-3 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 33, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 0.74 xG and Feyenoord 2.18 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Feyenoord outscored their 2.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.61 / defence 1.16 against Feyenoord attack 1.51 / defence 0.75, drawn from 32/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 10% | Draw 21% | Feyenoord 69%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 48%, Feyenoord 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Feyenoord's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.62. Form held, and they took the win. Emmen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.