AZ Alkmaar 5-1 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AZ Alkmaar at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this AZ Alkmaar vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 32 as AZ Alkmaar welcome Emmen to AFAS Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, AZ Alkmaar have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
AZ Alkmaar's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at AFAS Stadion this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Emmen — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Emmen have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. AZ Alkmaar register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Emmen in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for AZ Alkmaar, 0 for Emmen and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 3–0 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
AZ Alkmaar in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Emmen in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 68% versus Emmen 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 67% | Emmen 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 2.23 xG and Emmen 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.103 / defence 0.922 | Emmen attack 0.901 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 1.595 / away 1.233. Emmen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing AZ Alkmaar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 AZ Alkmaar games / 31 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 63% | Draw 22% | Emmen 15%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Emmen 6.67. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 60% | Emmen 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Emmen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 63% | Draw 22% | Emmen 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 59% | xG AZ Alkmaar 2.23 / Emmen 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.103 / def 0.922 | Emmen attack 0.901 / def 1.270 | league avg home 1.595 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Emmen xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Emmen kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Emmen?
AZ Alkmaar 5 - 1 Emmen.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Emmen part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 63% chance of winning, Emmen a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Emmen?
Record (1 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 1W | Draws 0 | Emmen 0W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Emmen in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Emmen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AZ Alkmaar's attack at 1.10x the league average against Emmen's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 2.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus AZ Alkmaar's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
63%
1.58
22%
4.48
15%
6.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
3.26
1.02
Emmen xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
6.88
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
11%
9.34
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
2%
64.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.02 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Emmen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AZ Alkmaar's recent record stands at 38W 14D 17L from 69 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Emmen, meanwhile, have gone 32W 15D 22L across 69 games — 1.61 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AZ Alkmaar on 1.86 PPG, Emmen on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AZ Alkmaar have managed 21W 8D 5L from 34 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Emmen's away record stands at 14W 6D 14L across 34 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.35 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 69 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Current Season
Emmen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Emmen in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 38W 14D 17L in their last 69 games (1.86 PPG), while Emmen have gone 32W 15D 22L in their last 69 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Emmen away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 2.09 PPG; Emmen away: 1.41 PPG.
Have AZ Alkmaar or Emmen been keeping clean sheets recently?
AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Emmen in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
AZ Alkmaar
0
Draws
0
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Emmen?
From 2 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 2, Emmen have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2023, when AZ Alkmaar 5-1 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Emmen?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 68%, Emmen 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (AZ Alkmaar) and 47% (Emmen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 53% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 47% of Emmen's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Emmen tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Emmen in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AZ Alkmaar run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Emmen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Emmen 5-1 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 2.23 xG and Emmen 1.02 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.10 / defence 0.92 against Emmen attack 0.90 / defence 1.27, drawn from 65/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 63% | Draw 22% | Emmen 15%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 67%, Emmen 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Emmen's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AZ Alkmaar 1.86 PPG, Emmen 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AZ Alkmaar win broke the near-deadlock. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.18 average — above their attacking norm. Emmen (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.