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Prediction vindicated as Dordrecht edge out Willem II 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dordrecht beat Willem II 2-1 at M-Scores Stadion, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.53 xG and Willem II 0.97 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Willem II attack 0.65 / defence 1.11, drawn from 0/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 48% | Draw 30% | Willem II 22%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 55%, Willem II 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dordrecht's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Willem II's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights