Den Bosch 1-0 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Relegation Round sees Cambuur travel to Stadion De Vliert to take on Den Bosch. The game is scheduled for Monday 12 May 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Den Bosch have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Den Bosch haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Den Bosch's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Stadion De Vliert this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion De Vliert this season.
Cambuur — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cambuur haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Cambuur's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Den Bosch are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Den Bosch have won 2, Cambuur 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2025, ended 0–2 with Cambuur winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Den Bosch 50% and Cambuur 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Den Bosch 58% | Cambuur 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.57 xG and Cambuur 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Cambuur attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.342. Data: 0 Den Bosch games / 0 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 42% | Draw 27% | Cambuur 31%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Cambuur 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Den Bosch as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Den Bosch offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Den Bosch 50% | Cambuur 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Monday 12 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 42% | Draw 27% | Cambuur 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Den Bosch 1.57 / Cambuur 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Cambuur attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Cambuur xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Cambuur kick off?
Den Bosch vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 12 May 2025 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Cambuur?
Den Bosch 1 - 0 Cambuur.
Where is Den Bosch vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Cambuur part of?
Den Bosch vs Cambuur is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 42% chance of winning, Cambuur a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Den Bosch and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Cambuur?
Record (4 meetings): Den Bosch 2W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 2W.
What form are Den Bosch and Cambuur in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Den Bosch's attack rating (0.85) and Cambuur's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
42%
2.37
27%
3.71
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.88
1.31
Cambuur xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
11%
8.80
6%
15.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.31 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Den Bosch have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 8W 9D 21L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. Den Bosch haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Cambuur's form line: 13W 8D 17L from 38 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D. Cambuur haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Den Bosch on 0.87 PPG, Cambuur on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Den Bosch have posted 0.79 PPG from 19 outings (3W 6D 10L).
On the road, Cambuur have gone 7W 2D 10L from 19 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Den Bosch are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.87 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur in 79%.
Last 38 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Pre-Season
Cambuur
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 8W 9D 21L in their last 38 games (0.87 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 13W 8D 17L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Cambuur away?
Cambuur's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 0.79 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Den Bosch's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Den Bosch
2
Draws
3
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Cambuur?
From 8 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 3, Cambuur have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Den Bosch 1-1 Cambuur.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Den Bosch see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Den Bosch at 63%, Cambuur at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Den Bosch and 74% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Den Bosch's games and 74% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Den Bosch's matches and 74% of Cambuur's.
Do Den Bosch and Cambuur tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Den Bosch edge out Cambuur 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat Cambuur 1-0 at Stadion De Vliert, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.57 xG and Cambuur 1.31 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cambuur landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Cambuur attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 42% | Draw 27% | Cambuur 31%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 58%, Cambuur 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Cambuur's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 0.87 PPG, Cambuur 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.