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Stalemate at De Graafschap's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion De Vijverberg, Relegation Round, as De Graafschap and Dordrecht drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.57 xG and Dordrecht 1.31 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. De Graafschap fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Dordrecht landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Dordrecht attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 42% | Draw 27% | Dordrecht 31%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 65%, Dordrecht 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

De Graafschap's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Dordrecht's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.60 PPG, Dordrecht 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights