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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dordrecht make the trip to Stadion De Vijverberg to face De Graafschap in Eredivisie, Relegation Round. The match kicks off on Tuesday 13 May 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
De Graafschap's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. De Graafschap haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
De Graafschap at Stadion De Vijverberg this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — De Graafschap are significantly better at Stadion De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Dordrecht have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D D D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dordrecht haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Dordrecht's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Dordrecht are 0.50 PPG clear of De Graafschap in recent Eredivisie fixtures (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: De Graafschap 2W, Dordrecht 1W, 3D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 60% and Dordrecht 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 65% | Dordrecht 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.57 xG and Dordrecht 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Dordrecht attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.342. Data: 0 De Graafschap games / 0 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 42% | Draw 27% | Dordrecht 31%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Dordrecht 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dordrecht (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 50% | Dordrecht 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 May 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (6 meetings): De Graafschap 2W | Draws 3 | Dordrecht 1W • Goals trend: 3.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: De Graafschap 12 – 6 Dordrecht • H2H markets: BTTS 83% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: De Graafschap 33% / Draw 50% / Dordrecht 17% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 42% / draw 27% / away 31% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.00 goals/game (50% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.88 (55% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 83%, Poisson BTTS probability 59% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
📈 Recent Form
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-D • Dordrecht (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-D-L • De Graafschap home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | CS 3 • Dordrecht away split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | CS 2 • Form edge: Dordrecht lead by 0.50 PPG (1.70 vs 1.20) • xG vs form (De Graafschap): Poisson projects 1.57 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.10 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Dordrecht): Poisson projects 1.31 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.20 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Over 2.5 corroborated — form projects ~2.9 total goals, Poisson xG sum 2.88 (55% Over 2.5 probability) • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~65% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 59% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Dordrecht on PPG but Poisson rates De Graafschap higher (42% vs 31% for Dordrecht) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 42% | Draw 27% | Dordrecht 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG De Graafschap 1.57 / Dordrecht 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Dordrecht attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Dordrecht xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Dordrecht kick off?
De Graafschap vs Dordrecht kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 13 May 2025 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
De Graafschap 0 - 0 Dordrecht.
Where is De Graafschap vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Dordrecht part of?
De Graafschap vs Dordrecht is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 42% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both De Graafschap and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Dordrecht?
• Record (6 meetings): De Graafschap 2W | Draws 3 | Dordrecht 1W • Goals trend: 3.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: De Graafschap 12 – 6 Dordrecht • H2H markets: BTTS 83% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: De Graafschap 33% / Draw 50% / Dordrecht 17% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 42% / draw 27% / away 31% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 3.00 goals/game (50% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.88 (55% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 83%, Poisson BTTS probability 59% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
What form are De Graafschap and Dordrecht in?
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-D • Dordrecht (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-D-L • De Graafschap home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | CS 3 • Dordrecht away split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | CS 2 • Form edge: Dordrecht lead by 0.50 PPG (1.70 vs 1.20) • xG vs form (De Graafschap): Poisson projects 1.57 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.10 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Dordrecht): Poisson projects 1.31 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.20 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Over 2.5 corroborated — form projects ~2.9 total goals, Poisson xG sum 2.88 (55% Over 2.5 probability) • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~65% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 59% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Dordrecht on PPG but Poisson rates De Graafschap higher (42% vs 31% for Dordrecht) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture