Cambuur vs Willem II – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cambuur (75%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cambuur face Willem II.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 19 as Cambuur welcome Willem II to Kooi Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 January 2027 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Cambuur — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Kooi Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Willem II stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 3.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Cambuur carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Cambuur have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 7 past contests while Willem II have managed just 0 wins.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2026, ended 6–1 with Cambuur winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Cambuur and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Willem II in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 65% and Willem II 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 63% | Willem II 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 3.35 xG and Willem II 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.120 / defence 1.124 | Willem II attack 0.681 / defence 1.730. League average goals — home 1.731 / away 1.842. Willem II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.730 — this is suppressing Cambuur's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Cambuur games / 11 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 75% | Draw 13% | Willem II 12%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 1.33 | Draw 7.69 | Willem II 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Cambuur (75%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 85% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 85% — a total xG of 4.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (3.35 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cambuur as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 85% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 70% | Willem II 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Jan 2027, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 75% | Draw 13% | Willem II 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 85% | BTTS 73% | xG Cambuur 3.35 / Willem II 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.120 / def 1.124 | Willem II attack 0.681 / def 1.730 | league avg home 1.731 / away 1.842 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.35
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Willem II xG
73%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
70%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Willem II kick off?
Cambuur vs Willem II is scheduled to kick off at 15:45 on Sunday 17 January 2027 at Kooi Stadion.
Where is Cambuur vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Willem II part of?
Cambuur vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 75% chance of winning, Willem II a 12% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Cambuur and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 85%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Willem II?
Record (7 meetings): Cambuur 4W | Draws 3 | Willem II 0W.
What form are Cambuur and Willem II in?
Cambuur (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Willem II (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 3.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cambuur's attack at 1.12x the league average against Willem II's defence at 1.73x — combine the two and it projects 3.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (6.8%), 4-1 (6.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
75%
1.34
13%
7.58
12%
8.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
6.8%
Home win
4 – 1
6.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.35
Cambuur xG
Total xG
4.76
1.41
Willem II xG
1.34
75%
Home win
7.58
13%
Draw
8.15
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
95%
Over 1.5
1.05
5%
Under 1.5
20.00
85%
Over 2.5
1.18
15%
Under 2.5
6.67
70%
Over 3.5
1.43
30%
Under 3.5
3.33
52%
Over 4.5
1.92
48%
Under 4.5
2.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.71
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
3%
28.59
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.6%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 3.35 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.41 for Willem II, a combined total of 4.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Willem II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cambuur's recent record stands at 27W 12D 10L from 49 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 22W 9D 18L across 49 games — 1.53 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cambuur on 1.90 PPG, Willem II on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cambuur have managed 14W 6D 4L from 24 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Willem II's away record stands at 12W 3D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cambuur are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.43 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Willem II in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 27W 12D 10L in their last 49 games (1.90 PPG), while Willem II have gone 22W 9D 18L in their last 49 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Willem II away?
Cambuur's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 2.00 PPG; Willem II away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 24 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Cambuur have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Oct 2026, when Cambuur won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cambuur's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Cambuur
3
Draws
0
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Willem II?
From 7 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 4, Willem II have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2026, when Willem II 1-6 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and Willem II?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 67%, Willem II 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Cambuur and 71% for Willem II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Cambuur's games and 62% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Cambuur's matches and 71% of Willem II's.
Do Cambuur and Willem II tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Willem II in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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