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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AZ Alkmaar and Waalwijk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AZ Alkmaar and Waalwijk finished level at 2-2 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.86 xG and Waalwijk 0.98 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Waalwijk outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.00 / defence 0.81 against Waalwijk attack 0.90 / defence 1.17, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 58% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 19%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 65%, Waalwijk 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Waalwijk's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights