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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant AZ Alkmaar run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Utrecht.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AZ Alkmaar beat Utrecht 4-1 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 2.08 xG and Utrecht 1.48 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.26 / defence 0.99 against Utrecht attack 0.95 / defence 0.98, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 52% | Draw 21% | Utrecht 27%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 67%, Utrecht 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Utrecht's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AZ Alkmaar 1.74 PPG, Utrecht 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AZ Alkmaar win broke the near-deadlock. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm. Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights