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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AZ Alkmaar cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sparta Rotterdam.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AZ Alkmaar beat Sparta Rotterdam 3-1 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.44 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.67 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 0.95 / defence 1.11 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.09 / defence 0.93, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 33% | Draw 24% | Sparta Rotterdam 43%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual AZ Alkmaar win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 65%, Sparta Rotterdam 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AZ Alkmaar 1.63 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AZ Alkmaar win broke the near-deadlock. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights